{"id":1241,"date":"2020-10-07T08:48:48","date_gmt":"2020-10-07T08:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/?p=1241"},"modified":"2020-11-11T02:19:36","modified_gmt":"2020-11-11T02:19:36","slug":"whether-optimism-or-exaggeration-govt-forecasts-proven-wrong-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/2020\/10\/whether-optimism-or-exaggeration-govt-forecasts-proven-wrong-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Whether optimism or exaggeration, govt forecasts proven wrong again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Back in 2017, we highlighted in \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/yulun2012.blogspot.com\/2017\/05\/blind-optimism-or-deliberate.html\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"http:\/\/yulun2012.blogspot.com\/2017\/05\/blind-optimism-or-deliberate.html\">Blind Optimism or Deliberate Exaggeration? A look at govt forecasts<\/a>\u201d that the government shaved projected HZMB usage forecast by one third in merely 10 years. The latest evidence of the already wrong forecast just came in on an HKEJ story entitled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www1.hkej.com\/dailynews\/politics\/article\/1868364\/%E6%B8%AF%E7%8F%A0%E6%BE%B3%E5%A4%A7%E6%A9%8B%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97%E7%94%A8%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"http:\/\/www1.hkej.com\/dailynews\/politics\/article\/1868364\/%E6%B8%AF%E7%8F%A0%E6%BE%B3%E5%A4%A7%E6%A9%8B%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97%E7%94%A8%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C\">HZMB usage forecast is revised lower<\/a>\u201d on June 19 2018. Not surprisingly, a new 2016 consultant\u2019s report lowered the projected automotive and foot traffic by a further 12% and 26% respectively! Below is an updated chart to illustrate the ever falling economic benefit of this grand civil engineering project\u2026 the red area represents the difference between the 2008 and 2016 forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/#\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-pofjpd6bBiA\/Wz4CBXkNtqI\/AAAAAAAABf0\/32Ml_ZJFGNwP1pjxvAjJ2f4TB6SMBMeBgCLcBGAs\/s400\/Capture.PNG\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6a02\u89c0\u5b9a\u8a87\u5927\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u8981\u8ca0\u8cac<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:18px\">\u7b46\u8005\u57282017\u5e74\u62d9\u6587\u300a<a href=\"http:\/\/yulun2012.blogspot.com\/2017\/06\/20170605.html\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"http:\/\/yulun2012.blogspot.com\/2017\/06\/20170605.html\"><strong>\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a\u76f2\u76ee\u6a02\u89c0\u6291\u6216\u662f\u6545\u610f\u8a87\u5927\uff1f<\/strong><\/a>\u300b\u4e2d\u5df2\u6307\u51fa\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u5341\u5e74\u5167\u4e0b\u8abf\u6e2f\u73e0\u6fb3\u5927\u6a4b\u8eca\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u9054\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u65bc6\u670819\u65e5\u898b\u65bc\u4fe1\u5831\u300a<a href=\"http:\/\/www1.hkej.com\/dailynews\/politics\/article\/1868364\/%E6%B8%AF%E7%8F%A0%E6%BE%B3%E5%A4%A7%E6%A9%8B%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97%E7%94%A8%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"http:\/\/www1.hkej.com\/dailynews\/politics\/article\/1868364\/%E6%B8%AF%E7%8F%A0%E6%BE%B3%E5%A4%A7%E6%A9%8B%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97%E7%94%A8%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C\"><strong>\u6e2f\u73e0\u6fb3\u5927\u6a4b\u4f30\u7b97\u7528\u91cf\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/strong><\/a>\u300b\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u5176\u5167\u63d0\u53ca\u5230\u65b0\u9867\u554f\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a2016\u5e74\u5df2\u8abf\u6574\u9810\u6e2c\u4e4b2030\u5e74\u8eca\u6d41\u91cf\u53ca\u4eba\u6d41\u91cf\u518d\u88ab\u8abf\u4f4e12%\u53ca26%\u3002\u4e0b\u5716\u4e43\u7b46\u8005\u5c07\u65b0\u820a\u9810\u6e2c\u4f38\u5ef6\u5c0d\u6bd4\uff0c\u7d05\u8272\u5340\u70ba\u4e0b\u8abf\u5340\u9593\uff1a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"395\" height=\"248\" src=\"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/image-33.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1242\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/image-33.png 395w, https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/image-33-300x188.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 395px) 100vw, 395px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"ast-button\" href=\"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/2020\/10\/whether-optimism-or-exaggeration-govt-forecasts-proven-wrong-again\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Whether optimism or exaggeration, govt forecasts proven wrong again<\/span> Read More \u00bb<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","content-type":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hong-kong"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1241"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1241\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1243,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1241\/revisions\/1243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}