{"id":3989,"date":"2026-04-02T05:28:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T05:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/?p=3989"},"modified":"2026-04-02T05:48:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T05:48:00","slug":"farmland-will-suffer-too-but-at-least-wont-go-hungry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/2026\/04\/farmland-will-suffer-too-but-at-least-wont-go-hungry\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmland – will suffer too, but at least won’t go hungry\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Israeli\/US attack on Iran has led to first a collapse in oil\/gas supply, first through disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but subsequently from retaliatory bombing of GCC state energy facilities by Iran.<\/p>

Petroleum shortage cuts feedstock supplies<\/strong><\/p>

This is not a problem of ‘energy for power’ only, but also how disruptions in input raw materials will impact food prices, as seen here:<\/p>

Article 1<\/strong><\/a>:\u00a0India’s major fertilizer plants<\/u>, including IFFCO, have\u00a0shut down due to LNG shortages\u00a0<\/u>…threatening urea supply, higher global prices;<\/p>

Article 4<\/strong><\/a>:\u00a0Australia’s wheat farmers are cutting back plantings\u00a0<\/u>in favor of oilseeds and pulses\u00a0due to fertilizer shortages<\/u>\u00a0and high costs triggered by the Iran war;<\/p>

Article 6<\/a>:<\/strong>\u00a0A\u00a0North Carolina farmer warns that the Persian Gulf fertilizer crisis, with urea prices surging\u00a0<\/u>from $475 to $550\/ton due to war disruptions,\u00a0will trigger a massive decline in U.S. crop yields and planted acres\u00a0<\/u>…potentially driving global food prices up 12\u201318% by 2026.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Not only are urea (and other fertiliser shortages) going to drive up input costs, and thus producer prices selling to the market, the reduced yields and reduced production could even trigger a bigger problem –\u00a0food shortage\u00a0<\/strong>– recalling that famines lead to unrest and wars, if the situation worsens (likely), we may see much more widespread societal chaos soon…<\/p>\n

Fuel costs to slash supply – bad for prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

The more obvious issue most people are aware of, is that oil supply disruption increases costs of everything, but from the food perspective, the impact on supply can be leading to shortages soon:<\/p>\n

Article 2<\/strong><\/a>:\u00a0Ireland\u2019s fishing fleet risks grounding within 2\u20133 weeks from soaring diesel costs\u00a0<\/u>it cannot pass on, endangering 3,650 processing jobs;<\/p>\n

Article 5<\/strong><\/a>:\u00a0High diesel prices<\/u>, up ~70% due to the Iran war,\u00a0have idled over half the Dutch fishing fleet\u00a0<\/u>(80-90% of beam trawlers) and are crippling other European fleets, tightening fish supply and driving up prices;<\/p>\n

Article 3<\/strong><\/a>: Australia\u2019s largest ammonia plant (Yara Pilbara) will remain\u00a0shut for two months after a power outage<\/u>, worsening global fertilizer and explosives shortages… hitting farmers and iron ore miners.<\/p>\n

The list can go on and on, but we will stop here. Unsurprisingly (probably due to still ample storage and reserves), agri prices have not gone up in line with other more immediately hit commodities, and may indeed underperform in the short term (red arrows<\/strong>), but eventually when shortage worsen enough, this will become more priceless than any electric car or wind turbine needs as people want to fill their bellies:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Meanwhile, the still modest food price reaction is probably our last chance to buy enough reserve NOW before the masses start waking up to the implications, and the inevitable mass panic and scramble buying:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Agri price index has already broken out of the down trend from the 2022 highs above, and could well recapture the 2011 highs in the next few months.<\/p>

Think of ripple effects, act ahead of crowds<\/strong><\/p>

If you are focused on just the headlines and oil prices, then more surprises will be in store, think of everything you may need in future (eg replace that 3-yr old phone, or upgrade your 5-yr old TV), and buy NOW, before the cost tsunami take out daily necessities one after another:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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We do not want to be alarmist, but it is pictures like this that gave us the peace of mind for farm ownership – yes the produce may be slashed due to costs, but at least you have all that’s needed for feeding the family, if not also the remoteness from conflict\/unrest centres in most of the urban centres:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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With this in mind, here is a refreshed top buy farm list for our target market.<\/p>

(Topbuys for clients)<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

We subscribe to the Scout Motto (link<\/a>) of ‘be prepared’, and given it is the long holiday weekend, we better leave you with a vaguely humorous end to the rather macabre message above, enjoy Tom Lehrer’s song of the same motto:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Israeli\/US attack on Iran has led to first a collapse in oil\/gas supply, first through disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","content-type":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1033,1356],"tags":[1831,1833,1830,1834,1829,1832],"class_list":["post-3989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic","category-global","tag-commodities","tag-farmland","tag-fuel-shortage","tag-high-inflation","tag-prepping","tag-urea"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/GtiWa0db0AAt1uE.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3989","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3989"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3989\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4006,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3989\/revisions\/4006"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bricksandmortarmgt.com\/zh_hk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}