As the chart below amply illustrates, the global death rate of COVID-19 remains puny at 0.000060%, and even when annualised, stands at 0.00025%.
Even assuming the death toll will climb tenfold from here, the figure will only exceed Whooping Cough (0.0021%) and still much below seasonal flu at 0.0051%:
Source: WHO, CRC
So, why are people not panicking about the flu with much higher death rate, or for that matter, the even deadlier TB with a death rate 0.021% (which is 4 times as severe as the flu)?
Although total death number will continue to climb, the fast approaching warm summer weather should slow if not stop the spread of this new form of flu, as the seasonality pattern in the US indicates typically a steep decline starts in April, bottoming in July:
Plus the fact that the global death trajectory (see grey line below) should moderate further given China (the biggest affected region) numbers have stablised, with growth rates falling by the day.
Despite obvious conclusion from above, we continue to publish the disease figures in our regular chart updates:
Linkedin update
Facebook update
hoping to do our part in dissipating what looks like dispropotionate reactions by politicians and the public alike.
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