The news that “The central government is planning to develop Macau as financial centre as a contingency back up …[to] Hong Kong” (link here) has caused more debate on how replaceable HK is as an Asian financial hub.
We have touched on a similar point in a previous post entitled “Will Shenzhen be the new Hong Kong?” where we concluded that HK’s international status will not be undermined, let alone replaced by China’s alternatives. Evidence from China’s various Free Trade Zone / financial hub initiatives over recent years suggests that none of them seems to jeopardize HK’s position.
The reasons for our above conclusion are enumerated succinctly in yesterday’s MingPao article “香港打不死” as follows:
“連深交所和上交所也不願做的生意，才放到未來的澳門交易所去掛牌，這些企業的質素和風險水平偏低，應是客觀事實！對香港來說，這些企業的吸引力也應極其有限！從這個角度看，澳門交易所理應不會是港交所的直接競爭對手。”
“香港能夠成為國際金融中心，內地金融界認為主因是背靠祖國、乘着大陸資本市場快速發展而冒起；無可否認，這是一個原因，但更重要的是香港擁有幾個特點，是大陸城市無法「仿效」的，包括法治制度、資金自由進出、資訊自由流通；不用多，光靠這3招，內地城市就無法超越香港。”
In a gist, PRC cities cannot replicate HK’s rule of law, free capital movement, free information flow. These are the 3 insurmountable barriers of entry that prevent them from overtaking HK.
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