Above is a recent feature interview by Hong Kong’s TVB channel, in which we highlighted the following key issues facing the local housing market:
a) with the end of the USD correction in October, HK dollar assets will face headwinds;
b) higher than market expected interest rates are likely in the coming year, putting more pressure on housing assets in HK;
c) current government policies to encourage home ownership will likely result in the weakest segment of the society ending up in negative equity when the housing cycle turns down;
d) the best way to address the high prices is to convert all public housing supplies into private market supplies. By shifting supply into public housing, the government is directly pushing up home prices as supply is diverted into the non-buying portions of the housing ladder;
e) the government is setting too high income thresholds and keeps raising them (eg PRH threshold now covers 43% of HK households, HOS threshold is higher than 78% of HK households, while the Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme extends over 86% of all HK households). This creates a false impression of ever rising demand for housing welfare, when the proper way to restrict demand is to lower the thresholds so only the truly needy will qualify to join the waiting lists.
以上采訪出自香港無綫電視專訪，其中筆者指出了本地樓市存在的一些關鍵的問題：
a）現時樓價向下的風險較向上風險大，由於美金剛完成調整，現在開始反彈，因此港元資產會趨向走弱；
b）環球息率向上會多於市場預期，也會增加樓市風險；
c）現時樓價已經接近頂端，而政府推出的各項鼓勵市民置業的政策卻鼓勵最無承受力的市民在樓價下跌時淪爲負資產；
d）針對樓價高企的最好政策，莫過於將公營房屋土地全部撥入私人市場，政策過度傾斜公營房屋會為樓價火上加油，因爲供應被轉往不能影響市價的板塊；
e）政府所定的公營房屋入息限額過高也會令樓市升溫（例如：公屋入息限額已經覆蓋四成三家庭，居屋入息限額已經覆蓋七成八家庭，而綠置居入息更覆蓋高達八成六住戶） 這造成了福利房屋需求强勁的假象–更正確的做法應該降低公營房屋入息門檻以服務真正有需要的市民。
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