Is it time to buy HK retail property yet? In the past two years, the retail market has been decimated by first the domestic protests and then by the global lockdowns. One of the prime victims of this combination of circumstances has been retail properties of Hong Kong, where rents have fallen some 14% from …
Stand news 20210915 17:46 The global overview – OECD wrecked by an overreaction The economic disaster lockdowns rendered on especially the SME sector has been well documented, and now we are about to enter another seasonal flu season in the northern hemisphere, it is timely to look at how the global dynamic is as of …
Economics of lockdown, and how a country’s future is impacted Read More »
1.The Security Junkie Syndrome; How Pausing the World Leads to Catastrophe David Eberhard, an experienced Swedish psychiatrist and best selling author and active lecturer, observes how we feel less and less secure despite arguably living in the safest period of time in human history. He explains that people are overestimating the risk of dying from …
2021年增長看似可觀，然而…. 經歷過2020年封城政策引致的嚴重收縮，坊間近日對2021年經濟增長的預測變得明顯地樂觀——幅度由3.3％到4.2％不等，平均增長率為3.8％。 然而，由於去年經濟呈現災難性下滑，上述的增長力度可能不足以回復到封城前的水平，如下圖所示： 圖一：今年經濟增長預測掩蓋了2020年的低基數效應 經濟增長（【圖一】藍線，黃線代表2021年市場預測）看似強勁，但如果將今年的數字與封城前的水平（紅線：兩年期同比增長）進行比較，便能發現起碼要到2022年首季才恢復疫前水平。需要注意，看似於2020年第三/四季出現的增長實質上亦是受惠於2019年社會運動影響下經濟低迷所造成的低基數效應。 若要與過去經濟下行周期比較，當前的情況看來更像2001-2003年科網泡沫/沙士衰退周期，而非於2009-2010年爆發的金融海嘯，因爲後者迅速反彈。鑑於目前的復甦態勢，今年的經濟狀況非但難以超越2019年的水平，甚至連明年也難以達到。 重拾2018年高峰，須待2023年？ 那麼，經濟何年方能重回封城前之高峰？ 可能不為人知事實是，香港經濟早於2018年便見頂回落，並且在2019年（社運）及2020年（封城）持續處於下降趨勢！今年的經濟復甦之力度仍難以確定，因其完全取決於政府何時開關以重啓經濟。 圖二：GDP指數似乎指向2022年後才回到2018年的峰值 若開關遙遙無期，又或環球旅遊不能復原，則2023年重回經濟高峰的目標將更難實現。 與上次大型衰退作比較——2000年的經濟峰值要遲至2004年才得以超越；同理，假設封城措施/大量印鈔/供應鏈破壞等因素不再迅速製造第二波副作用，如債務危機/甚或政治動盪，香港經濟重拾2018年高峰之景況應可於2023年實現。
Good 2021 growth figures, but… After the atrocious contractions of 2020 thanks to lockdowns, recent forecasts on 2021 GDP have turned distinctly rosy, ranging from 3.3% to 4.2% and averaging 3.8% growth. However, given the traumatic falls of 2020, these growth figures may still not be enough to take us back to pre-lockdown levels, and …
HK economics – recovery distorted by base effect Read More »
1. Americans’ Views (trust ratings) of U.S. pharma Industry The 2019-2020 Americans’ net ratings for the pharmaceutical industry have never been lower since Gallup first started the poll in 2001. When govt and pharma companies are so closely knit, and when the former has granted the latter legal immunity from negligence suits, why is …
5 articles on masks, lockdowns, trust in pharma companies, etc. Read More »
1. Why not lockdown for diabetes or dementia? Deaths are multiples of covid… We have now a full year’s data to properly annualise covid deaths for comparing with other causes of death. As should have long been obvious to all rational human beings, this is not a crisis other than by politicians/bureaucrats’ own making – …
Covid lockdowns totally unjustified… these death numbers prove it Read More »
1. Dr. Wakefield warns : ”This is not a Vax, it is irreversible genetic modification” Before you decide the vaccine is valid or not, first, you need to understand how is the vaccine work and function: Dr. Wakefield claimed that: RNA from a vaccine would not be able to directly alter our DNA, in …
Covid / vaccines / lockdowns – more rational arguments against the narrative Read More »
1) The meaningless meaning of ‘COVID Cases’ by Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser Each day, we’re bombarded with reports and news of more “COVID-19 cases”, whatever that term means… 2) Dr. Simone Gold: The Truth About the COVID-19 Vaccine Dr. Simone Gold : – there are proven effective treatments for COVID-19 that the media is ignoring …
5 research/analysis pieces critical of the Vaccine / Lockdown narrative Read More »
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